Doesn’t Anyone Read History Anymore? Iraqification Will Not Work Any Better Than Vietnamization
I hear the numbers and statistics about Americans and their level of education, and usually they go in one ear and out the other, but honestly. I expect better out of top-level policy makers. Have they never cracked open a history book? It seems that the “stay the course” policy crowd in Iraq, and respected publications like The Economist advocate baring the brunt of the insurgency, while waiting for the Iraqi Security forces to be able to step up and provide security in lieu of the Americans. Even the Baker-Hamilton Report offers a similar strategy. Phased withdrawal, coupled with Iraqi takeovers of key security responsibilities.
In the 1968 Election, Richard Nixon trounced Hubert Humphrey, promising that he had a secret plan to extricate us from Vietnam, as well as promising to finding a way to end the conflict with honor. Of course, Richard Nixon had no such policy prescription, and his real strategy was to buy time, to train South Vietnamese security forces to fight the war themselves.
This was, of course, a disaster. The attempt to conjure a competent security force out of nowhere, and expect it to perform to the level of the US military was something that did not work in Vietnam, and certainly will not work in Iraq. In Vietnam, the local opposition to the US presence was much less. In Vietnam, there was no Sunni-Shiite split. And yet, training the South Vietnamese to step up to protect their own country did not work. The situation in Iraq is much worst. The trust in the Iraqi army and police forces is so low to begin with, and the national government is powerless. Security forces and Iraqi army forces have essentially no state and central government to be loyal to, and their sectarian loyalties will interfere with their ability to mediate a civil war.
There may be a solution in Iraq, but it certainly does not lay in the tired “as the Iraqis stand up, we will stand down” solution. Historically, this has been tried. Locals, receiving basic training cannot perform to the level of crack professional American soldiers. Especially given the state of animosity and sectarian violence that already exists. Sorry. Try again with a real policy solution.
Links:
The Iraq Study Group Report – The US Institute of Peace
Wikipedia - Vietnam War – Vietnamization
The Washington Post – 7 in 10 Americans Disapprove Handling of the War
In the 1968 Election, Richard Nixon trounced Hubert Humphrey, promising that he had a secret plan to extricate us from Vietnam, as well as promising to finding a way to end the conflict with honor. Of course, Richard Nixon had no such policy prescription, and his real strategy was to buy time, to train South Vietnamese security forces to fight the war themselves.
This was, of course, a disaster. The attempt to conjure a competent security force out of nowhere, and expect it to perform to the level of the US military was something that did not work in Vietnam, and certainly will not work in Iraq. In Vietnam, the local opposition to the US presence was much less. In Vietnam, there was no Sunni-Shiite split. And yet, training the South Vietnamese to step up to protect their own country did not work. The situation in Iraq is much worst. The trust in the Iraqi army and police forces is so low to begin with, and the national government is powerless. Security forces and Iraqi army forces have essentially no state and central government to be loyal to, and their sectarian loyalties will interfere with their ability to mediate a civil war.
There may be a solution in Iraq, but it certainly does not lay in the tired “as the Iraqis stand up, we will stand down” solution. Historically, this has been tried. Locals, receiving basic training cannot perform to the level of crack professional American soldiers. Especially given the state of animosity and sectarian violence that already exists. Sorry. Try again with a real policy solution.
Links:
The Iraq Study Group Report – The US Institute of Peace
Wikipedia - Vietnam War – Vietnamization
The Washington Post – 7 in 10 Americans Disapprove Handling of the War
